@Article{MarengoOrsiniAlveTorr:2016:ReClCh,
               author = "Marengo Orsini, Jos{\'e} Antonio and Alves, Lincoln Muniz and 
                         Torres, Roger R.",
          affiliation = "{Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alerta de Desastres Naturais 
                         (CEMADEN)} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} 
                         and {Universidade Federal de Itajub{\'a} (UNIFEI)}",
                title = "Regional climate change scenarios in the Brazilian Pantanal 
                         watershed",
              journal = "Climate Research",
                 year = "2016",
               volume = "68",
               number = "2/3",
                pages = "201--213",
             keywords = "Climate change, Hydrology, Pantanal, Rainfall, River levels.",
             abstract = "In the Brazilian Pantanal, hydrometeorological conditions exhibit 
                         a large interannual variability. This variability includes the 
                         seasonality of floods and droughts which can be related to land 
                         surface processes and to El Niņo/La Niņa. Based on regional 
                         climate change projections derived from the Eta-HadGEM2 ES models 
                         with 20 km latitude-longitude resolution for the RCP8.5 for 
                         2071-2100, it is expected that there will be an annual mean 
                         warming of up to or above 5-7°C and a 30% reduction in rainfall by 
                         the end of the 21st century. As a consequence of higher 
                         temperatures and reduced rainfall, an increased water deficit 
                         would be expected, particularly in the central and eastern parts 
                         of the basin during spring and summer, which could affect the 
                         pulse of the Paraguay River. While the changes projected by the 
                         Eta-HadGEM2 ES are consistent with the changes produced by the 
                         CMIP5 models for the same scenario and time slice, we can affirm 
                         that changes in the hydrology of the Pantanal are uncertain, 
                         because in a comparison of CMIP5 and Eta-HadGEM2 ES model 
                         projections, some show increases in rainfall and in the discharges 
                         of the Paraguay Basin, while others show reductions.",
                  doi = "10.3354/cr01324",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.3354/cr01324",
                 issn = "0936-577X",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "C1324Marengo (1).pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "28 abr. 2024"
}